Serbia i Czarnogóra: Ocena ex-post pomocy makrofinansowej
07.2007 - 01.2008
The main objective of this ex-post evaluation of MFA is to evaluate the EC's macro-financial assistance operations in Serbia and Montenegro and thereby learn key lessons which can be applied to future interventions and/or to establish the possible need for a reorientation of the present approach.
The evaluation questions broadly focus on three core areas of effects: Macroeconomic stabilization, Sustainability of the external financial situation, and Structural reforms.
For the attribution of effects to the MFA operation, a three-step approach is followed:
The first step is to identify the types of short-term macro economic effects, short and medium structural effects on the economy and on institutions and identify plausible cause and effect relations between assistance and subsequent developments. The second step is to establish a counterfactual situation and the third step involves determination of effects of the operation, which, for both macroeconomic issues and structural issues amounts to the difference between observed developments and the counterfactual situation. Unexpected and indirect effects, as well as consequences of program design will also be analyzed.
- ECORYS Netherlands BV
- Economisti Associati
Komisja Europejska, Directorate for Economic and Financial Affairs