Serbia and Montenegro: Ex post Evaluation of Macro Financial Assistance Operations
The main objective of this ex-post evaluation is to evaluate the EC's macro-financial assistance (MFA) operations in Serbia and Montenegro in order to learn key lessons that can be applied to future interventions and/or to determine whether a reorientation of the present approach is needed. The evaluation questions broadly focus on three core areas of effects: macroeconomic stabilization, sustainability of the external financial situation, and structural reforms.
For the attribution of effects to the MFA operations, a three-step approach is followed. The first step consists in identifying the types of short-term macroeconomic effects, short and medium structural effects on the economy and on institutions, as well as identifying plausible cause and effect relations between assistance and subsequent developments. The second step seeks to establish a counterfactual situation, while the third step involves determining the effects of the operations, which, for both macroeconomic and structural issues amounts to the difference between observed developments and the counterfactual situation. Unexpected and indirect effects, as well as consequences of program design will also be analyzed.
European Commission, Directorate for Economic and Financial Affairs
ECORYS Netherlands BV