Forecasting Financial Stress and the Economic Sensitivity in CEE Countries

Two unobservable phenomena, financial stress and economic sensitivity, have an important effect on the economic situation of a country. Economic sensitivity is defined as a lack of both balanced economic growth and a lack of stability of public finances. Financial stress is a disruption of the normal functioning of the markets, in that: large shifts in asset prices, an abrupt increase in risk and uncertainty about the value of assets, liquidity droughts, and concerns about the health of the banking system. In this report the authors present forecasts of the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the year 2014 and 2015. Forecasting economic sensitivity and financial stress is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices, the FSI and the ESI, for twelve Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) in the period 2001-2012. read more » about Forecasting Financial Stress and the Economic Sensitivity in CEE Countries

Can public policies stimulate the demand for innovation in businesses?

PPI

Each year in Europe 19% of public spending, that is over 2.300bn euros, goes to the public procurement but only a tiny share of this is allocate to innovative projects. However, if these activities are to be effective, policies should focus more on the interplay between public organizations and private business - said Peter Lindholm during seminar “Can public policies stimulate the demand for innovation in businesses?”. Over years innovation policies have merely focused on implementing an innovation infrastructure that could supply services to firms willing to innovate. This includes physical infrastructures (technoparks, incubators, engineering centres, etc.) and soft infrastructure (financial support, business advisory services, etc.). The concept of stimulating the demand side for innovation was not actively pursued and little evidence were collected to determine which measures could work best in different business environments. read more » about Can public policies stimulate the demand for innovation in businesses?

Is Europe Overbanked?

Since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008, academics, policy makers, and citizens alike have engaged in discussions about its causes and consequences, and which the appropriate counter-measures should be. The banking system has been carefully and repeatedly scrutinized. However, a broad consensus on the roots of the problem is unlikely to emerge anytime soon. During the 132nd mBank – CASE Seminar our guest, professor Marco Pagano of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Naples Federico II, took part in this debate. read more » about Is Europe Overbanked?

Institutions of the Russian fiscal federalism: 20 years of evolution

The degree of decentralization in Russia is somewhat lower than the average of federal countries such as Austria, Germany and the United States, at least when one measures it by the share of sub-national governments in general government spending and revenues. Given that in Russia revenues of the federal and subnational governments depend to a large extent on the price of oil, an important block of the federal fiscal legislation is the stabilization policy. The Reserve Fund, which was established in 2003, cushions the effect of the oil price fluctuations on the budget. In addition to the Reserve fund, Russia has a fiscal rule that ex ante caps federal government expenditures at a certain level which is determined by a five-year average of past oil prices. Fiscal legislation also establishes limits on deficits, debts and borrowing of sub-national governments. read more » about Institutions of the Russian fiscal federalism: 20 years of evolution

Healthcare human resources – trends and prospects for an aging society

The adverse demographic changes that are the major cause of population aging lead to an increased demand for medical and care staff in healthcare and long-term care (LTC) sectors. As far as LTC is concerned, the situation is especially dire, as this system is still under formation in Poland – these are the main conclusions of the presentation delivered by prof. Stanislawa Golinowska, dr. Agnieszka Sowa and dr. Ewa Kocot during the seminar “Healthcare human resources - trends and perspectives for an the ageing society.” read more » about Healthcare human resources – trends and prospects for an aging society

Employment in Long-term Care in Poland

The aim of this report is to provide an insight into the long-term care (LTC) labor market. The LTC system in Poland is still being formed and the institution is being confronted with a growing need for care due to dynamic population ageing. On the one hand, the development of employment is conditioned by the supply of care institutions that are formulating specific requirements from people employed in care work, which is leading to the development of new paths of education in nursing and care jobs. On the other hand, employment in LTC is developing under the influence of manifested care needs. read more » about Employment in Long-term Care in Poland

Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe: Safeguarding the Recovery as the Global Liquidity Tide Recedes

Growth is gathering momentum in most of Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) in the wake of the recovery in the euro area. Excluding the largest economies—Russia and Turkey—the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Issues report projects the region to grow 2.3 percent in 2014, almost twice last year’s pace. This is certainly good news.But an unusual constellation of risks clouds the outlook. Geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine, more challenging global financial conditions as monetary policy in advanced economies normalizes, and the possibility of protracted weak growth in the euro area could take a toll on the region’s growth prospects. read more » about Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe: Safeguarding the Recovery as the Global Liquidity Tide Recedes

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Central banks’ independence – necessity or redundancy?
14.07.2014 | Grzegorz Poniatowski

***This piece was originally published on Forbes.pl

Since the establishment of the first central bank in 1668 – the Swedish Riskbank – the goals and ways of functioning of central banks have undergone significant evolution. During the past 350 years the mission of central banks has been many a time redefined, and their relationship with governments has been constantly reevaluated.

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CASE in the media

  Crazy euro, crazy ideas;
  Europe is still ill (in Russia
n)

  18.07.2014 | Christopher Hartwell

  Anatomy of the economic
  slowdown (in Russian)

                    18.07.2014 | Christopher Hartwell,
                    Simeon Djankov, Andrei Sharonov

 

  When borrowing becomes
  excessive? (in Romanian)

  09.07.2014 | Daniel Dăianu


 

  China Looks to Hong Kong
  Graft Buster in Anti-Bribery Fight

  02.07.2014 | Bryane Michael

 

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Sabanci Holdings
17.07.2014 | Bryane Michael

The video covers the How To Gain Exposure To The Turkish Markets article, written by CASE Fellow, Bryane Michael, which can be downloaded here.

Check Making law, economics and business easier youtube channel for more videos!