Russia at a crossroads
“Putin has had luck, but he has done very little for Russia,” said Anders Aslund, during a CASE Policy Research Seminar, June 7, 2010. Dr. Aslund discussed Russia after the global financial crisis. The speaker described the shocking outcomes of the crisis on the Russian economy and the key concerns the country now faces. Putin’s severe mismanagement of the economy, coupled with the hardship brought on by the crisis, have left Russia at a crossroads where sustaining the status quo is no longer an option.
The crisis has paved the way for introducing essential reforms which are crucial to overcoming the dysfunctionality of the police and state corporations, the structural crisis facing Gazprom, and the need for military change. However, the debate surrounding these issues is only now beginning while the state remains corrupt and politics continue to be a major hindrance to positive change.
During his presentation Aslund also highlighted a gradual shift in Russian foreign policy. “Russia wants to become a player rather than the spoiler” which it has been in the past; however, changes in this direction are also only marginal.
“The huge potential Russia has is human capital,” Aslund shifted back to the issue of the Russian economy. Due to this Russia should not experience growth below 4% in the foreseeable future.
Aslund continued to outline the extent to which Russia is engaging in renewed liberal economic reforms, the dire need for greater discipline of the police, and the political resistance and economic will for Russian accession to the WTO.
Anders Aslund is the Chairman of the CASE Advisory Council and a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC.
