Bayesian estimation, Europe, Macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy, monetary policy, CASE Reports, Structural VAR, CASE Network Studies and Analyses

Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison


This paper estimates responses to monetary shocks for several of the current members of the EMU (in the pre-EMU sample) and for the Central and East European (CEE) countries, along with the mean response in each of the groups. The problem of the short sample, especially acute in the case of the CEE, is mitigated by using a Bayesian estimation which combines information across countries. The estimated responses are similar across regions, but there is some evidence of more lagged and deeper price responses in the CEE economies. If this results from structural differences, premature  entering the EMU would cause problems, but if from credibility issues, entering the EMU would be desirable. Also, with longer response lags, conducting a stabilizing monetary policy should be difficult in the CEE currently, and giving it up might not be a big loss after all.