Economic potential for shale gas production in Poland in 2010-2025. Scenario analysis
The project had two main research goals. The first goal was to create three realistic scenarios for the development of shale gas production till 2025, together with defining the level of investment expenditures required in each scenario. The second goal was to examine the macroeconomic effects on the entire Polish economy of each scenario to develop the shale gas sector. For each scenario, the employment effects and dynamics of GDP, investment, consumption and government expenditures were compared to the baseline, in which shale gas is not extracted.
The established scenarios take into account various demand, capital, technological, regulatory and business constraints. They differ in terms of the scale of shale gas extraction after the exploration phase. According to CASE’s analysis, the maximum annual level of shale gas extraction at the end of the time period can vary from 3 billion cubic metres in the moderate growth scenario, through 6 billion cubic metres in the increased foreign investment scenario, to 20 billion cubic metres in the accelerated development scenario. The main factor differentiating the paths of development of the shale gas sector in Poland are the finances needed in the exploitation phase, which exceed the capacity of the Polish national economy, except in the first scenario. The scenario to be implemented geologically will be selected after the exploration phase in 2015.
The CASE report shows that national shale gas extraction may become the driving force of the entire economy in the coming decades and the catalyst for deep structural changes, especially in the area of electric power. Poland has the opportunity to become the biggest European centre of competence for the improvement of extraction technologies. Benefiting from national shale gas production demands international cooperation. This implies the creation of legal and tax frameworks for entities that have experience in extracting oil and gas from unconventional reserves.