Fifth International CASE Conference
Winds of Change:
The Impact of Globalization on Europe and Asia
23-24 March, 2007 Kyiv (Ukraine)
The two-day agenda contained 6 thematic sessions and 3 keynote addresses (see below). Each session had one or two speakers and two to four commentators representing the highest level of international expertise in their topics.
- Keynote addresses:
Alan Gelb "Economic Development of Africa"
Martin Wolf "The Challenges and Risks of Globalization"
Oleksandr Savchenko "Ukraine and Global Economy"
- Session 1: The Asian Challenge to Europe: Growth Performance and Changing Trade Patterns
Chairman: Lucjan Orlowski
Speakers: Anders Aslund, Susan Schadler, Wing Thye Woo
Commentator: Jean Pissani-Ferry, Wei Zhang
The rapidly growing economies of China, India other Asian countries are changing the economic map of the world, while many European economies and Japan have experienced slow growth for more than a decade. This session will: (1) discuss the causes of growth differences across countries in the light of modern growth theories and (2) analyze their potential impact on the pattern of world and Eurasian trade and development. Rapidly growing Asian exports put severe pressure on many traditional industries, not only in Europe and US but also in middle- and low-income countries. On the other hand, the increasing size of Asian domestic markets is becoming an important source of global demand. How serious is the Asian challenge to Europe and the US, and how can they adjust to this challenge?
- Session 2: Global Imbalances: Sources, Sustainability and Policy Responses
Chairman: Sergey Drobyshevsky
Speaker: Daniel Gros, Juergen von Hagen, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Commentators: Ray Barell, Marek Dabrowski, George Kopits
The last ten years have brought a gradual increase in the US current account deficit to record levels, matched by large and increasing current account surpluses in many East Asian and oil producing countries. Some other groups of countries (Anglo-Saxon OECD members, new EU member states) have also become persistent net importers of savings. Is the source of saving-investment imbalances to be found in increasing global capital mobility or in the macroeconomic policies of particular countries or groups of countries? Are we witnessing a "global savings glut" or a "global liquidity glut"? Can these imbalances be sustained indefinitely? If they require correction how can it be achieved?
- Session 3: Migration Flows: Between Economic Needs and Social Fears
Chairman: Roman Mogilevsky
Speaker: Sebastien Jean
Author of commented paper: Jakob von Weizacker (not present at the conference)
Commentators: Georges de Menil, Krassen Stanchev, Matthias Lücke
Population aging in Europe (more rapid in the East than in the West) puts serious pressure on public finances and may undermine productivity growth in the long term. Migration from countries and regions with surplus labor may be an economic solution. However, the increasing economic demand for imported labor in Europe goes hand-in-hand with increasing opposition to immigration in many European societies, based on social and cultural fears. The session will discuss economic benefits of free movement of people and migration, geographic origins of migration flows to Europe, and policies which can address both economic needs and social fears.
- Session 4: Is Aid Needed in a World of Free Trade?
Chairman: Peter Mihalyi
Speakers: Refik Erzan, Abdur Chowdhury & Paolo Garonna, Stephen P. Groff
Commentators: Chia Siow Yue, Keun Lee
The income gap between developed and developing countries is not disappearing in spite of a number of spectacular development successes over the last few decades (mostly in East Asia). The number of people living in a deep poverty is still very large and some regions and countries are caught in an "underdevelopment trap". The question of optimal development aid strategies has been a subject of hot economic and political debate for many decades. This session will discuss the role and effectiveness of various aid strategies and instruments: creating market access for developing countries' goods and services (trade liberalization), financial aid, technical assistance involving various kinds of policy and institutional transfers. In the latter case (technical assistance) there are questions related to the so-called country ownership of imported reforms, its institutional absorption capacity and incentives.
- Session 5: Governance and Economic Development
Chairman: Irina Akimova
Speaker: Leszek Balcerowicz, Paul G. Hare, Jan Svejnar
Commentators: Leonid Polishchuk, Jacek Rostowski
A major reason why countries fail to develop economically is the weakness of their institutions. In many less developed countries such weakness may affect institutions ranging from the judiciary and the legal system more generally to the banking and monetary systems. This session will concentrate on the role of political institutions, public administration, judiciary and the legal systems as the potential barriers to economic development. Special attention will be paid to the role of democracy, political pluralism and civil liberties in building a competitive market economy.
- Session 6: The European Union and its Near Abroad
Chairman: Wojciech Paczynski
Speakers: Michael Emerson, Lucio Vihnas de Souza & Tatiana Lysenko
Commentators: Samir Radwan, Milica Uvalic, Vladimer Papava
The experience of consecutive EU enlargements (including future ones) demonstrates a big power of attraction of the idea of European integration for less developed countries in Europe. The perspective of EU membership has become a powerful incentive to intensify both democratic and market reforms, first in the Mediterranean region, then in Central Europe and the Baltic states, recently in the Balkan region and Turkey. However, one can observe increasing "enlargement fatigue" among incumbent EU members, especially in Western Europe. What will be consequences of slowing down / stopping further EU enlargement projects for the stability and prosperity of the European periphery? How attractive can the prospect of EU membership be for countries located far from the economic and cultural core of Europe? Or can they find other attractive integration alternatives? Can the European Neighborhood Policy, covering as it does a very heterogeneous group of countries, serve as an effective substitute for prospects of actual EU membership?
- 2006 GMF Trade Survey. Perspectives on Trade and Poverty Reduction
Moderator: Anna Kolesnichenko
Speaker: Jonathan White
Despite uncertainty over the future of the Doha Round of World Trade Organization talks, a survey released on December 5, 2006 shows that most Americans and Europeans support the lowering of tariffs and other trade barriers. The German Marshall Fund of the United States' Perspectives on Trade and Poverty Reduction, in its third year, shows that most Americans and Europeans also appreciate the economic benefits of freer trade and believe it contributes to democracy, global stability, and prosperity. Compared to 2005, views on globalization are more favorable in every country surveyed, and majorities in each favor foreign companies investing in their markets. However, when asked about the impact of freer trade on jobs and businesses, support for trade weakens. Many Americans and Europeans expressed anxiety over import dependency, and most see China's economy as a threat. A project of GMF's Economics Policy Program, Perspectives on Trade and Poverty Reduction is a survey of transatlantic public opinion on international trade, economic development, and poverty reduction. Conducted in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Slovakia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, it also explores views on agricultural subsidies, development aid, and how governments can improve country competitiveness.